I am sick to death of hearing media speculation that Iraq is headed toward civil war. I'll remind everyone... On 20 March 2003, a coalition made up primarily (98%) of forces from the United States and the United Kingdom began bombing the city of Baghdad. By April, U.S. forces had moved into the capitol city and on 1 May, President Bush announced
the end of major combat operations in Iraq and declared that "the United States and our allies have prevailed."
Subsequently, forces described as "insurgents" began a vigorous campain to rid Iraq of any international occupying bodies and disrupt or replace the new Iraqi government. The estimated death toll from the attacks has passed 30,000, including 2,500 military and at least 550 non-Iraqi civilian deaths. The effort by the coalition to stabilize the nation has thus far failed and, in fact, the insurgency has become more powerful, more organized, and larger than any pre-war estimates predicted.
Iraq is not headed for civil war. By every definition, Iraq is IN a civil war.
It's time to call a spade a spade. You will not find a definition for "civil war" anywhere that doesn't apply directly to the ongoing conflict in Iraq. The destruction of the
Al-Askariya "Golden Mosque" is being acurately described as a tipping point which pushes Iraq past any hope of a peaceful intervention by the international community. If the exact same series of events were taking place in France, Brazil, or (God forbid) here in the United States, it would be described as a civil war without question.
Media and government speculation that Iraq is "headed" towards civil war is not only asinine, it's exceptionally pessimistic. We insist on treating the Iraq war as if it's a small-scale police action; attack, counter-attack, attack, counter-attack, attack, counter-attack, ad nausium. But it clearly isn't working. The term "fire with fire" comes to mind, but more directly, we are handling Iraq microscopically, as if dealing with each individual act one at a time could possibly make nationwide changes.
The truth is simultaniously more sad and more hopeful. Iraq is in the throes of a full-scale civil war and the international military forces have been pushed to the sidelines. Treating the situation in Iraq as it is, however, means the options open up widely. We can pull back, see the whole picture, and start dealing with Iraq in a way that is both meaningful and comprehensive. Like the difference between dealing with petty criminals and the Mafia, without a wider vision of the situation, the problems will never be solved. Continuing bureaucracy and micromanagement will only destroy the entire country.
It's time we started helping Iraq (politically, diplomatically, militarily) pull itself out of civil war.
Suggestions please.